Allow me to start with a disclaimer: the subtle intricacies of Lebanese politics bore me to tears. The learned analyses that our local pundits come up with on a regular basis are more suited to a village square than to a civilized nation, which admittedly we are not yet. Still, even the casual observer must be amazed by the numerous comments following the epic Metn by-election.
My personal favorite is that it turns out that “the Armenian community is neither Lebanese nor Christian”. This is of the utmost interest considering that Armenia was the first country in the world to adopt Christianity as state religion in 301, and that Armenians have lived in the area currently called Lebanon for centuries. Granted, the majority of them settled in the country after World War I, and they only have been Lebanese citizens for eighty years.
I will gladly skip the details of who voted for whom, how and where, and the exact proportions of albino Maronites to redhead Greek Orthodox and blond Armenians. Suffice it to say that the results are in, and that Mr. Gemayel has lost. You have to remember that his son has just been murdered in a cowardly fashion, that his “campaign” was based upon attacking the widely despised Syrian regime, and that his opponent’s leader is a delusional former General who thinks that he is channeling Napoleon Bonaparte. In all logic, Armenians, Bedouins, Palestinians and Murrs notwithstanding, Mr. Gemayel should have easily won. Yet he didn’t, and there lies the problem.
The main issue is that March 14 has nothing to offer unfortunately, except fear of the Syrian regime and of its Iranian allies. I won’t argue that they have not both been detrimental to our country, but something important is missing. In the 70’s, all we heard was that Lebanon only had one problem: the Palestinian refugees. That if they were to disappear as an armed presence, the Lebanese would fall into each others’ arms and solve all of their differences. In 1982, both the Palestinians and the Syrians were out of most of the country, and incidentally the same Amine Gemayel was president. Yet we did not fall into each others’ arms to solve all of our problems. In fact, we killed each other with reckless abandon, until we reached the most horrendous massacre of all courtesy of Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea. Small world, isn’t it?
Today, all that March 14 can come up with is that the Syrian regime is the problem. They are financed by the evil Iranians, they want to impose Dawlat al Fakih, Beirut will become Teheran by the Mediterranean Sea… All of this might be true, but maybe, just maybe should we realize that somewhere out there lies a real and very serious Lebanese problem. Blaming everything on foreign interferences is simply ridiculous.
This is where Mr. Aoun and his Tayyar are doing a better job than March 14. You can call it populism, demagoguery, whatever you choose, the reality is undeniable. In Lebanon we have deep structural problems: lack of institutions, corruption, poverty, official mismanagement, collapsing environment, no redistribution of wealth… The Tayyar came up with what my good friend Abu Ali once called a Mickey Mouse program. March 14 came up with…well, nothing at all. But please remember that we have to get the Syrians out!
Once upon a time, in a galaxy far far away, lived a man call Ahmed Al Ass’ad. He held sway over a region called Jabal ‘Amil. One day, the people living in the area came to him, and asked him to pressure the central government to build schools in their villages so their children could get a proper education. Ahmed Bey answered:” Why do your kids need an education? My son Kamel will soon graduate from high school and he will take good care of you”.
I get the same impression every time I hear a March 14 politician: why do you need economic, social, health and environmental policies? Just help us get the Syrians out, and then when our sons will inherit our positions, they will take good care of you. Somehow I can relate to the ‘Amili villagers.
Putting it another way, what happened two years ago was called “The Cedar Revolution”, not “The Cedar…let us get totally rid of the Syrians and go back to the old status quo that never worked in the first place”. It would be helpful if the leaders of March 14 could take a few minutes off their busy schedules and open up a dictionary to read the definition of the word “Revolution”. The Lebanese are hungry for change, they crave a robust state and all they get is a choice between Mickey Mouse and al. on one hand, and the interstellar void with a white noise background repeating ad infinitum “get rid of the Syrians” on the other.
On Sunday, Kamil Khoury (whoever he is) beat Mr. Gemayyel, not because only the “Real Lebanese” voted the right way while the riffraff from Burj Hammoud and Bteghreen were up to their old tricks, but simply because March 14 has never ever been able to articulate a global strategy for the country. Not only are they losing the battle of ideas to Mickey Mouse, but they are not even pretending that they are fighting this battle for they do not acknowledge that it is needed.
Herein lies the danger of the great moral victory of the Metn and all the analyses that followed: March 14 is convincing itself that it is doing the right thing, and that the only reason they lost was the evil machination of the no less evil Syrian regime.
For March 14 to be remotely relevant, it has to come up with a program that will address the needs of all Lebanese citizens. They urgently need to articulate ideas that will show that they are serious about moving the country forward. Whether they are willing and able to accomplish this is a different story. In case they don’t, then they fully deserve to lose the next elections. The Metn election reminds me of my high school days and the parties we organized, overdosing on 7-UP and trying to get the girls to be interested in us. The golden rule was not to waste time with the ones taking themselves too seriously, who would look at you as if you had just crawled from under a rock. Low expectations? Maybe, but at least you could relate to those you selected…
Mustapha Mond.
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